{
  "meta": {
    "title": "CO2-Verursacher 2025/2026 und die KI-Debatte - Datendossier",
    "publisher": "Teddynews",
    "url": "https://teddynews.at/ki-fakten/",
    "dossier_date": "2026-07-25",
    "latest_source_date": "2026-07-22",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0",
    "units": {
      "gt": "Gigatonnen CO2",
      "mt": "Megatonnen CO2",
      "twh": "Terawattstunden",
      "wh": "Wattstunden",
      "ppm": "parts per million"
    },
    "marker_legend": {
      "IST": "gemessen oder berichtet",
      "PROGNOSE": "Modellwert fuer die Zukunft",
      "BERECHNET": "aus Quellenzahlen abgeleitet",
      "SCHAETZUNG": "Groessenordnung aus Sekundaerquelle",
      "UNGEPRUEFT": "im Dossier bewusst nicht verwendet"
    },
    "warning": "Sektorwerte sind nicht addierbar. CO2 und CO2e nicht mischen. Jede Zahl traegt marker und src.",
    "next_updates": [
      {
        "expected": "2026-11",
        "source": "Global Carbon Budget 2026 (COP31)",
        "changes": "Fossil-CO2 2026, Landnutzung, Restbudget"
      },
      {
        "expected": "2027-02",
        "source": "IEA Electricity 2027",
        "changes": "Strom-CO2 2026 Ist, Prognose bis 2031"
      },
      {
        "expected": "2027-04",
        "source": "IEA Global Energy Review 2027",
        "changes": "Energie-CO2 2026 Ist"
      },
      {
        "expected": "2027-07",
        "source": "Energy Institute Statistical Review",
        "changes": "CO2e 2026"
      },
      {
        "expected": "2026-09",
        "source": "EDGAR/JRC Report 2026",
        "changes": "THG aller Laender, Sektorsplit 2025"
      }
    ]
  },
  "global_2025": {
    "energy_co2_gt": {
      "v": 38.4,
      "chg_pct": 0.4,
      "chg_mt": 145,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    "combustion_chg_mt": {
      "v": 185,
      "chg_pct": 0.5,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    "process_chg_mt": {
      "v": -40,
      "chg_pct": -2,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    "fossil_co2_gt": {
      "v": 38.1,
      "chg_pct": 1.1,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    "landuse_co2_gt": {
      "v": 4.1,
      "chg_pct": -9.8,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    "total_co2_gt": {
      "v": 42.2,
      "chg_pct": -0.04,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    "co2e_energy_gt": {
      "v": 41.0,
      "chg_pct": 1.1,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "EI26"
    },
    "ghg_edgar_gt": {
      "v": 53.2,
      "chg_pct": 1.3,
      "scope": "ohne LULUCF",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "EDGAR25"
    },
    "ghg_unep_gt": {
      "v": 57.7,
      "scope": "inkl. LULUCF",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "UNEP25"
    },
    "gdp_chg_pct": {
      "v": 3.1,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    "ppm": {
      "v_min": 425.6,
      "v_max": 427.0,
      "chg_min": 2.1,
      "chg_max": 2.4,
      "preindustrial": 278,
      "above_preindustrial_pct_min": 50,
      "above_preindustrial_pct_max": 52,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GCB25 / IEA-GER26"
    },
    "budget_15c_gt": {
      "v": 170,
      "years": 4,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    "budget_17c_gt": {
      "v": 525,
      "years": 12,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    "budget_20c_gt": {
      "v": 1055,
      "years": 25,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "GCB25"
    }
  },
  "system_boundaries": [
    {
      "id": "fossil",
      "label": "Nur fossiles CO2 inkl. Zement",
      "gt": 38.1,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    {
      "id": "energy",
      "label": "Energiebedingtes CO2 inkl. Industrieprozesse und Abfackelung",
      "gt": 38.4,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "co2e_energy",
      "label": "CO2e aus Energie inkl. Methan",
      "gt": 41.0,
      "unit": "CO2e",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "EI26"
    },
    {
      "id": "fossil_plus_land",
      "label": "Fossiles CO2 plus Landnutzungsaenderung",
      "gt": 42.2,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    {
      "id": "ghg_no_lulucf",
      "label": "Alle Treibhausgase ohne LULUCF",
      "gt": 53.2,
      "unit": "CO2e",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "EDGAR25"
    },
    {
      "id": "ghg_all",
      "label": "Alle Treibhausgase inkl. LULUCF",
      "gt": 57.7,
      "unit": "CO2e",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "UNEP25"
    }
  ],
  "fuels_2025": [
    {
      "id": "coal",
      "label": "Kohle",
      "share_pct": 41,
      "gt": 15.6,
      "chg_pct": 0.8,
      "driver_mt": 25,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    {
      "id": "oil",
      "label": "Oel",
      "share_pct": 32,
      "gt": 12.2,
      "chg_pct": 1.0,
      "driver_mt": 60,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    {
      "id": "gas",
      "label": "Erdgas",
      "share_pct": 21,
      "gt": 8.0,
      "chg_pct": 1.3,
      "driver_mt": 85,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    {
      "id": "other",
      "label": "Zement-Prozess und andere",
      "share_pct": 6,
      "gt": 2.3,
      "chg_pct": null,
      "driver_mt": null,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "Restgroesse"
    }
  ],
  "drivers_2025_mt": [
    {
      "id": "gas",
      "label": "Erdgas",
      "v": 85,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "oil",
      "label": "Oel",
      "v": 60,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "coal",
      "label": "Kohle",
      "v": 25,
      "prev_year": 210,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "weather",
      "label": "Wettereffekte",
      "v": 90,
      "note": "Teilmenge der 185 Mt, keine Brennstoffkategorie",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "us_gas_to_coal",
      "label": "US-Gas-zu-Kohle-Wechsel",
      "v": 75,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    }
  ],
  "sectors": [
    {
      "id": "power",
      "label": "Stromerzeugung",
      "gt": 13.9,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "year": 2025,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-EL26",
      "subset_of": null
    },
    {
      "id": "industry",
      "label": "Industrie",
      "gt": 10.6,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "EDGAR25",
      "subset_of": null
    },
    {
      "id": "livestock",
      "label": "Tierhaltung",
      "gt": 6.2,
      "unit": "CO2e",
      "year": 2015,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "FAO-GLEAM",
      "subset_of": null,
      "note": "andere Metrik: CO2-Aequivalente, ueberwiegend Methan"
    },
    {
      "id": "road",
      "label": "Strassenverkehr",
      "gt": 6.0,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-BA25",
      "subset_of": null
    },
    {
      "id": "landuse",
      "label": "Entwaldung, Landnutzung",
      "gt": 4.1,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "year": 2025,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GCB25",
      "subset_of": null
    },
    {
      "id": "buildings",
      "label": "Gebaeude, Haushalte",
      "gt": 3.0,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "EDGAR25",
      "subset_of": null
    },
    {
      "id": "airsea",
      "label": "Luft- und Seeverkehr",
      "gt": 2.3,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "Restgroesse",
      "subset_of": null
    },
    {
      "id": "fuelprod",
      "label": "Brennstoff-Foerderung",
      "gt": 2.0,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "year": 2024,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "EDGAR25",
      "subset_of": null
    },
    {
      "id": "datacentre",
      "label": "Rechenzentren",
      "gt": 0.2,
      "unit": "CO2",
      "year": 2025,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "IEA-AI26",
      "subset_of": "power"
    }
  ],
  "regions_2025": [
    {
      "id": "cn",
      "label": "China",
      "share_pct": 32,
      "chg_gcb": 0.4,
      "chg_iea": -0.5,
      "per_capita_t": 9.1,
      "power_chg": -1.0,
      "power_intensity_g": 530,
      "power_intensity_2030_g": 415
    },
    {
      "id": "us",
      "label": "USA",
      "share_pct": 13,
      "chg_gcb": 2.5,
      "chg_iea": null,
      "per_capita_t": 14.0,
      "power_chg": 4.3,
      "power_intensity_g": null,
      "power_intensity_2030_g": null
    },
    {
      "id": "in",
      "label": "Indien",
      "share_pct": 8,
      "chg_gcb": 1.1,
      "chg_iea": 0.0,
      "per_capita_t": 2.2,
      "power_chg": -3.3,
      "power_intensity_g": 695,
      "power_intensity_2030_g": 585
    },
    {
      "id": "eu",
      "label": "EU 27",
      "share_pct": 6,
      "chg_gcb": -0.1,
      "chg_iea": null,
      "per_capita_t": 5.6,
      "power_chg": -2.2,
      "power_intensity_g": 170,
      "power_intensity_2030_g": 90
    },
    {
      "id": "row",
      "label": "Rest der Welt",
      "share_pct": 41,
      "chg_gcb": 0.9,
      "chg_iea": null,
      "per_capita_t": null,
      "power_chg": null,
      "power_intensity_g": null,
      "power_intensity_2030_g": null
    }
  ],
  "regions_note": "Fettwerte der ESSD-Publikation 2026 ersetzen die COP30-Pressemitteilung Nov 2025: USA 2,5 statt 1,9 / Indien 1,1 statt 1,4 / EU -0,1 statt 0,4.",
  "per_capita_2024_t": [
    {
      "id": "sa",
      "label": "Saudi-Arabien",
      "v": 17.7,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "DESTATIS"
    },
    {
      "id": "ca",
      "label": "Kanada",
      "v": 14.9,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "DESTATIS"
    },
    {
      "id": "au",
      "label": "Australien",
      "v": 14.4,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "DESTATIS"
    },
    {
      "id": "ru",
      "label": "Russland",
      "v": 14.1,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "DESTATIS"
    },
    {
      "id": "us",
      "label": "USA",
      "v": 14.0,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "DESTATIS"
    },
    {
      "id": "cn",
      "label": "China",
      "v": 9.1,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "DESTATIS"
    },
    {
      "id": "eu",
      "label": "EU 27",
      "v": 5.6,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "DESTATIS"
    },
    {
      "id": "world",
      "label": "Welt",
      "v": 4.75,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GCB25"
    },
    {
      "id": "in",
      "label": "Indien",
      "v": 2.2,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "3,22 Gt / 1,46 Mrd."
    }
  ],
  "curve_power_co2_pct": [
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "v": 1.5,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-EL26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "v": 1.4,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-EL26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "v": 0.0,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-EL26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "v": 1.0,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-MYU26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2027,
      "v": 0.0,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-MYU26"
    }
  ],
  "power_co2_absolute_mt": {
    "v": 13900,
    "year": 2025,
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "IEA-EL26"
  },
  "power_intensity_g_kwh": {
    "world_2025": 435,
    "world_2030": 360,
    "chg_2025_pct": -3,
    "chg_decade_pct": -14,
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "IEA-EL26"
  },
  "curve_datacentre_twh": [
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "v": 415,
      "share_world_pct": 1.5,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI25"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "v": 485,
      "chg_pct": 17,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2030,
      "v": 950,
      "share_world_pct": 3.0,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2035,
      "v": 1200,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    }
  ],
  "curve_world_electricity_demand": [
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "chg_pct": 4.4,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-EL26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "twh": 28600,
      "chg_pct": 3.0,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-EL26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "chg_pct": 3.6,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-MYU26"
    },
    {
      "year": 2027,
      "twh": 30700,
      "chg_pct": 3.8,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-MYU26"
    }
  ],
  "datacentre_split_twh": {
    "note": "IEA-Zahlen OHNE Krypto-Mining. Krypto separat ausgewiesen.",
    "2025": {
      "ai": 155,
      "non_ai": 330,
      "sum_iea": 485,
      "crypto": [
        150,
        200
      ],
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI26 / OWID-DC26"
    },
    "2030": {
      "ai": 465,
      "non_ai": 480,
      "sum_iea": 945,
      "crypto": null,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-AI26 / OWID-DC26"
    },
    "share_world_2025_pct": 1.5,
    "share_world_ai_only_2025_pct": 0.49,
    "share_world_2030_pct": 3.0
  },
  "datacentre_co2_mt": {
    "2024": {
      "v": 180,
      "share_combustion_pct": 0.5,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI25"
    },
    "2025_total": {
      "v_min": 194,
      "v_max": 210,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "485 TWh x 0,40-0,43 t/MWh"
    },
    "2025_non_ai": {
      "v_min": 132,
      "v_max": 143,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "IEA-Intensitaet"
    },
    "2025_ai": {
      "v_min": 62,
      "v_max": 67,
      "marker": "BERECHNET",
      "src": "IEA-Intensitaet"
    },
    "2025_crypto": {
      "v_min": 45,
      "v_max": 80,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "hohe Unsicherheit, Strommix 52,4 % nachhaltig"
    },
    "2030_peak": {
      "v": 320,
      "share_pct": 1,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    },
    "2035": {
      "v_min": 300,
      "v_max": 500,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IEA-AI26 Base bis Lift-Off"
    }
  },
  "load_distribution_pct": [
    {
      "id": "streaming",
      "label": "Video-Streaming, 1 Stunde",
      "datacentre": 5,
      "network": 23,
      "device": 72,
      "co2_g": 36,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "IEA-STREAM"
    },
    {
      "id": "llm",
      "label": "LLM-Inferenz",
      "datacentre": 96,
      "network": 1,
      "device": 3,
      "co2_g": null,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "LCA Mistral Large 2"
    }
  ],
  "energy_per_request_wh": [
    {
      "id": "gemini_narrow",
      "label": "Gemini, schmale Methodik nur TPU/GPU",
      "wh": 0.1,
      "co2_g": 0.02,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GOOGLE-GEM"
    },
    {
      "id": "gemini_median",
      "label": "Gemini, Median-Textprompt, umfassende Methodik",
      "wh": 0.24,
      "co2_g": 0.03,
      "water_ml": 0.26,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "GOOGLE-GEM"
    },
    {
      "id": "chatgpt",
      "label": "ChatGPT, typische Anfrage",
      "wh": 0.3,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "Epoch AI"
    },
    {
      "id": "agent",
      "label": "Agent-Anfrage",
      "wh": 1.2,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "IEA-AI26 Figure 2.1"
    },
    {
      "id": "long",
      "label": "Lange Anfrage, 7.500 Woerter Input",
      "wh": 2.5,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "Epoch AI"
    },
    {
      "id": "gpt5",
      "label": "GPT-5, Durchschnitt",
      "wh": 18,
      "peak_wh": 40,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "Sekundaerbericht via DCD, schwaechster Beleg"
    },
    {
      "id": "max",
      "label": "Maximal-Anfrage, 75.000 Woerter",
      "wh": 40,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "Epoch AI"
    },
    {
      "id": "agent_reasoning",
      "label": "Agent-Anfrage mit Reasoning",
      "wh": 50,
      "marker": "SCHAETZUNG",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    },
    {
      "id": "shower",
      "label": "Vergleich: 1 Minute Elektro-Dusche",
      "wh": 160,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "OWID-DC26"
    }
  ],
  "efficiency": {
    "gemini_energy_per_prompt_factor_12m": -33,
    "gemini_co2_per_prompt_factor_12m": -44,
    "grok4_training_twh": 0.31,
    "grok4_training_share_of_ai_electricity_2025_pct": 0.2,
    "debunked_rule": "KI-Anfrage = 10x Websuche. Nicht verwenden: es existiert keine aktuelle offizielle Zahl fuer eine Google-Suche, die kursierenden 0,3 Wh stammen aus einer Google-Angabe von 2009 und sind mit Googles gemessenen 0,24 Wh nicht vereinbar.",
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "GOOGLE-GEM / GOOGLE-PAPER / Epoch AI"
  },
  "datacentre_concentration_pct": [
    {
      "id": "dublin",
      "label": "Dublin",
      "v": 79,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Oeko-Institut"
    },
    {
      "id": "virginia",
      "label": "Virginia",
      "v": 26,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    },
    {
      "id": "ireland",
      "label": "Irland",
      "v": 21,
      "forecast_2026": 32,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    },
    {
      "id": "usa",
      "label": "USA",
      "v": 5,
      "ai_only": 2,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    },
    {
      "id": "europe",
      "label": "Europa",
      "v": 1.6,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    },
    {
      "id": "world",
      "label": "Welt",
      "v": 1.5,
      "ai_only": 0.49,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-AI26"
    }
  ],
  "hyperscaler": [
    {
      "id": "google",
      "label": "Google",
      "twh_2020": 15.2,
      "twh_2024": 32.2,
      "twh_2025": 43.6,
      "twh_chg_pct": 37,
      "emissions_chg_pct": 18,
      "pue": 1.09,
      "accounting": "Konzernbericht; ausgewiesene Senkung der Rechenzentrums-Energieemissionen nur marktbasiert plausibel",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "TRELLIS26"
    },
    {
      "id": "microsoft",
      "label": "Microsoft",
      "twh_2020": 10.8,
      "twh_2024": 29.8,
      "twh_2025": 37.0,
      "twh_chg_pct": 24,
      "emissions_chg_pct": 25,
      "pue": 1.17,
      "accounting": "Scope 2 marktbasiert von 456.119 t (2020) auf 259.090 t (2024) gesunken, waehrend der Stromverbrauch sich fast verdreifachte",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "TRELLIS26"
    },
    {
      "id": "amazon",
      "label": "Amazon",
      "twh_2025": null,
      "emissions_chg_pct": 16,
      "scope2_chg_pct": 34,
      "pue": 1.14,
      "accounting": "Stromverbrauch nicht offengelegt; absolut 64,38 Mt CO2e (2023) auf 68,25 Mt (2024)",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "TRELLIS26"
    },
    {
      "id": "meta",
      "label": "Meta",
      "twh_2025": null,
      "pue": 1.09,
      "accounting": "Stromverbrauch nicht offengelegt",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "TRELLIS26"
    }
  ],
  "capex": {
    "hyperscaler_2025_bn_usd": 400,
    "expected_growth_2026_pct": 75,
    "amazon_google_microsoft_2025_26_bn_usd": 750,
    "note": "Capex von fuenf Tech-Konzernen uebersteigt die globalen Investitionen in Oel- und Gasfoerderung",
    "gas_turbine_orders_2025_pct": 70,
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "IEA-AI26"
  },
  "avoided_2025_gt": [
    {
      "id": "solar",
      "label": "Solar-PV",
      "v": 1.5,
      "note": "halb davon in China",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "wind",
      "label": "Windkraft",
      "v": 1.1,
      "note": "= Frankreich + Deutschland + Italien zusammen",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "nuclear",
      "label": "Kernkraft",
      "v": 0.21,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "ev",
      "label": "E-Autos",
      "v": 0.1,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    },
    {
      "id": "hp",
      "label": "Waermepumpen",
      "v": 0.09,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "IEA-GER26"
    }
  ],
  "avoided_sum_gt": {
    "v": 3.0,
    "share_of_energy_emissions_pct": 8,
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "IEA-GER26"
  },
  "grid": {
    "queue_gw": 2500,
    "grid_investment_today_bn_usd": 400,
    "grid_investment_increase_needed_pct": 50,
    "quick_connect_gw": [
      1200,
      1600
    ],
    "renewables_added_2025_gw": 692,
    "renewables_added_chg_pct": 15.5,
    "renewables_total_gw": 5149,
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "IEA-GER26 / IEA-EL26"
  },
  "labour_forecasts": [
    {
      "id": "wef",
      "source": "WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025",
      "statement": "netto +78 Mio. Rollen bis 2030 (+170 Mio. neu, -92 Mio. verdraengt)",
      "sign": "positiv",
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "WEF-FOJ25"
    },
    {
      "id": "ilo",
      "source": "ILO Working Paper 140",
      "statement": "1 von 4 Beschaeftigten mit GenAI-Exposition, nur 3,3 % in der hoechsten Stufe",
      "sign": "neutral",
      "marker": "IST-Index",
      "src": "ILO-WP140"
    },
    {
      "id": "imf",
      "source": "IMF",
      "statement": "rund 40 % der Jobs weltweit betroffen, 60 % in Industrielaendern",
      "sign": "neutral",
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "IMF"
    },
    {
      "id": "gs",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs",
      "statement": "300 Mio. Jobs exponiert, nur 2,5 % der US-Beschaeftigung mit direktem Verdraengungsrisiko",
      "sign": "neutral",
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "Goldman Sachs"
    },
    {
      "id": "mck",
      "source": "McKinsey",
      "statement": "60-70 % der Taetigkeiten technisch automatisierbar, 12 Mio. Berufswechsel in den USA bis 2030",
      "sign": "neutral",
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "McKinsey"
    },
    {
      "id": "pwc",
      "source": "PwC",
      "statement": "30 % der US-Jobs bis Mitte der 2030er voll automatisierbar, 56 % Lohnpraemie fuer KI-Skills",
      "sign": "neutral",
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "PwC"
    },
    {
      "id": "forrester",
      "source": "Forrester",
      "statement": "netto -6,1 % der US-Jobs (10,4 Mio.) bis 2030 - pessimistischste seriöse Prognose",
      "sign": "negativ",
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "Forrester"
    },
    {
      "id": "amodei",
      "source": "Dario Amodei, Mai 2025",
      "statement": "KI koennte Einstiegsjobs im Buerobereich binnen fuenf Jahren halbieren",
      "sign": "negativ",
      "marker": "BEHAUPTUNG",
      "src": "Anthropic"
    }
  ],
  "labour_measured": [
    {
      "id": "yale",
      "source": "Yale Budget Lab",
      "statement": "nach 33 Monaten keine erkennbare gesamtwirtschaftliche Stoerung; Updates Jan und Mai 2026 bestaetigen das",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "YALE-BL"
    },
    {
      "id": "challenger",
      "source": "Challenger, Gray & Christmas 2025",
      "statement": "55.000 Entlassungen KI zugeschrieben von 1,17 Mio. gesamt = 4,7 %",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Challenger"
    },
    {
      "id": "nyfed",
      "source": "New York Fed",
      "statement": "1 % der Dienstleistungsunternehmen hat wegen KI entlassen, 13 % planen es",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "NY Fed"
    },
    {
      "id": "dk",
      "source": "Humlum & Vestergaard 2025, Daenemark",
      "statement": "Verwaltungsdaten, 11 exponierte Berufe: null Effekt auf Verdienst und Stunden bis 2024",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Humlum & Vestergaard"
    },
    {
      "id": "hartley",
      "source": "Hartley, Jolevski, Melo & Moore 2026",
      "statement": "35,9 % der US-Beschaeftigten nutzten GenAI bis Dez 2025, kleine positive Lohneffekte",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Hartley et al."
    },
    {
      "id": "us_labour",
      "source": "US-Arbeitsmarkt Maerz 2026",
      "statement": "Arbeitslosenquote 4,3 %, Beschaeftigungsaufbau nur rund 20.000/Monat, low-flow-Muster",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "BLS"
    }
  ],
  "entry_level": [
    {
      "id": "harvard",
      "label": "Einstiegs-Einstellungen bei genAI-adoptierenden Firmen, pro Quartal seit 2023",
      "v": -80,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "HARVARD-EL"
    },
    {
      "id": "junior_swe",
      "label": "Junior-Ausschreibungen Softwareentwicklung und Datenanalyse",
      "v": -67,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Branchendaten"
    },
    {
      "id": "signalfire",
      "label": "Neueinstellungen mit unter 1 Jahr Post-Graduate-Erfahrung, 2019-2024",
      "v": -50,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "SIGNALFIRE"
    },
    {
      "id": "uk",
      "label": "UK, Tech-Absolventenstellen 2024",
      "v": -46,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "techUK"
    },
    {
      "id": "revelio",
      "label": "Einstiegs-Stellenausschreibungen USA seit Jan 2023",
      "v": -35,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "REVELIO"
    },
    {
      "id": "stanford_swe",
      "label": "Junge Softwareentwickler 22-25 seit Ende 2022",
      "v": -20,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "CANARIES"
    },
    {
      "id": "stanford",
      "label": "Relative Beschaeftigung 22-25 in exponierten Berufen",
      "v": -13,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "CANARIES"
    }
  ],
  "entry_level_counter": [
    {
      "label": "McKinsey kuendigt fuer 2026 mehr Einstellungen an",
      "v": 12,
      "unit": "%",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "McKinsey"
    },
    {
      "label": "Einstiegs-Ausschreibungen Gesundheitswesen",
      "v": 13,
      "unit": "pp",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Branchendaten"
    },
    {
      "label": "Gesundheitswesen, oeffentlicher Dienst, Freizeit und Gastgewerbe: Anteil an allen neu geschaffenen Stellen Ende 2024 und 2025",
      "v": 75,
      "unit": "%",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "BLS"
    }
  ],
  "entry_level_mechanism": "Die Harvard-Studie (66 Mio. Beschaeftigte, ueber 280.000 US-Firmen, 2015-2025) zeigt: der Einbruch begann VOR der tatsaechlichen Automatisierung. KI-Erwaehnungen in US-Earnings-Calls verdreifachten sich bis Mitte 2023, die Firmen reduzierten ihre Einstiegs-Einstellungen unmittelbar danach - auf Basis erwarteter, nicht realisierter Automatisierung. Die Senior-Beschaeftigung derselben Firmen wuchs weiter.",
  "productivity_rct": [
    {
      "id": "support",
      "label": "Kundensupport, 5.179 Agenten, Fortune 500",
      "v": 14,
      "novice": 34,
      "expert": 0,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond"
    },
    {
      "id": "writing",
      "label": "Schreibaufgaben, 453 Absolventen, praeregistriert",
      "v": 18,
      "time_pct": -40,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Noy & Zhang, Science"
    },
    {
      "id": "coding",
      "label": "HTTP-Server in JavaScript, 95 Profi-Entwickler",
      "v": null,
      "time_pct": -55.8,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Peng et al."
    },
    {
      "id": "field",
      "label": "Feldexperimente, Unternehmensmassstab",
      "v": 26,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Cui et al. 2025"
    },
    {
      "id": "bcg",
      "label": "758 BCG-Berater, GPT-4, innerhalb der Faehigkeitsgrenze",
      "v": 12.2,
      "time_pct": -25.1,
      "quality_pct": 40,
      "outside_frontier_pp": -19,
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Dell'Acqua et al."
    },
    {
      "id": "metr",
      "label": "Erfahrene Open-Source-Entwickler",
      "v": -19,
      "note": "bei gleichzeitiger Selbsteinschaetzung, 20 % schneller zu sein",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "METR 2025"
    },
    {
      "id": "copilot",
      "label": "Copilot, within-subject",
      "v": 0,
      "note": "kein signifikanter Zeitunterschied, aber Praeferenz fuer Copilot",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "Vaithilingam et al."
    }
  ],
  "adoption_vs_result": {
    "organisations_using_ai_pct": 88,
    "genai_pct": 70,
    "measurable_ebit_effect_pct": 6,
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "McKinsey State of AI / Stanford AI Index 2026"
  },
  "productivity_forecasts": [
    {
      "id": "acemoglu",
      "source": "Acemoglu 2024/2025",
      "quantity": "TFP",
      "per_year_pct": 0.07,
      "decade_pct": [
        0.53,
        0.66
      ],
      "gdp_pct": [
        1.1,
        1.6
      ],
      "cum10_pct": 0.7,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "ACEMOGLU"
    },
    {
      "id": "oecd_low",
      "source": "OECD 2025, unteres Ende",
      "quantity": "Arbeitsproduktivitaet",
      "per_year_pct": 0.4,
      "cum10_pct": 4.07,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "OECD"
    },
    {
      "id": "oecd_high",
      "source": "OECD 2025, oberes Ende",
      "quantity": "Arbeitsproduktivitaet",
      "per_year_pct": 1.3,
      "cum10_pct": 13.8,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "OECD"
    },
    {
      "id": "pwbm",
      "source": "Penn Wharton Budget Model",
      "quantity": "TFP- und BIP-Niveau",
      "per_year_pct": null,
      "level_2035_pct": 1.5,
      "level_2055_pct": 3.0,
      "level_2075_pct": 3.7,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "PWBM-AI"
    },
    {
      "id": "goldman",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs 2023",
      "quantity": "US-Produktivitaet",
      "per_year_pct": 1.5,
      "cum10_pct": 16.05,
      "global_gdp_pct": 7,
      "global_gdp_usd_tn": 7,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "Goldman Sachs"
    },
    {
      "id": "mckinsey",
      "source": "McKinsey 2023",
      "quantity": "BIP-Wachstum Industrielaender",
      "per_year_pct": 3.4,
      "per_year_low_pct": 1.5,
      "cum10_pct": 39.7,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE",
      "src": "McKinsey"
    }
  ],
  "productivity_spread_note": "Faktor rund 20 zwischen der pessimistischsten (0,07 %/Jahr) und der optimistischsten (1,5 %/Jahr) Jahresrate. Die kumulierten Zehnjahreswerte sind BERECHNET als (1+r)^10-1 bei konstanter Rate und sind keine Quellenangabe.",
  "delegation_index": {
    "directive_dec2024_pct": 27,
    "directive_aug2025_pct": 39,
    "automation_jan2025_pct": 41,
    "augmentation_jan2025_pct": 56,
    "api_automation_pct": 77,
    "api_augmentation_pct": 12,
    "occupations_25pct_tasks_done_pct": 49,
    "note": "Nov-2025-Daten zeigen eine leichte Umkehr: mehr Augmentation, weniger Automation.",
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "AEI-INDEX"
  },
  "scaling_fallacy": [
    {
      "id": "env",
      "claim": "Massive Umweltschaeden durch Rechenzentren",
      "local": "Belegt. Dublin 79 %, Virginia ueber 25 %, Irland ueber 20 % des Stromverbrauchs. Google-Strom +37 % (2025) auf 43,6 TWh, Emissionen +18 %. Microsoft +24 % auf 37 TWh, Emissionen +25 %. Amazon +16 %. ITU: indirekte Emissionen der vier Konzerne +150 % (2020-2023).",
      "global": "Ueberzeichnet. Rechenzentren 1,5 % des Weltstroms, KI allein 0,49 %. Rechenzentrums-CO2 rund 0,5 % der globalen Verbrennungsemissionen. ICT-Sektor gesamt rund 1,9 % der Treibhausgase, Luftfahrt 2,5 %.",
      "local_status": "belegt",
      "global_status": "ueberzeichnet"
    },
    {
      "id": "targets",
      "claim": "Konzerne verfehlen ihre Klimaziele",
      "local": "Belegt. Google: Ziel netto null 2030, Emissionen 2025 +18 %. Amazon: Ziel 2040, +16 %. Microsoft: +25 % im Geschaeftsjahr 2025.",
      "global": "Keine globale Entsprechung: die Aussage ist auf Unternehmensebene definiert und dort belegt.",
      "local_status": "belegt",
      "global_status": "nicht anwendbar"
    },
    {
      "id": "fomo",
      "claim": "Investorengier und FOMO statt Nutzen",
      "local": "Belegt. Hyperscaler-Capex ueber 400 Mrd. USD (2025), fuer 2026 +75 % erwartet. Capex von fuenf Tech-Konzernen groesser als globale Oel- und Gasfoerderinvestitionen. Amazon, Google und Microsoft rund 750 Mrd. USD fuer 2025/26. Gasturbinen-Bestellungen +70 %. Fall Allbirds.",
      "global": "Keine globale Entsprechung: Kapitalmarktbefund, kein Mengenbefund.",
      "local_status": "belegt",
      "global_status": "nicht anwendbar"
    },
    {
      "id": "quality",
      "claim": "Fehlerhafte, aufgezwungene Technologie",
      "local": "Belegt. Fall Apple Intelligence. BCG-RCT: ausserhalb der Faehigkeitsgrenze -19 pp. METR 2025: erfahrene Entwickler 19 % langsamer bei Selbsteinschaetzung 20 % schneller. McKinsey: 88 % Adoption, rund 6 % messbarer EBIT-Effekt.",
      "global": "Keine globale Entsprechung: Befund auf Anwendungs- und Firmenebene.",
      "local_status": "belegt",
      "global_status": "nicht anwendbar"
    },
    {
      "id": "entry",
      "claim": "Einstiegsjobs werden vernichtet",
      "local": "Belegt, im Ausgangsvideo untertrieben. Harvard -80 % Einstiegs-Einstellungen bei adoptierenden Firmen, Stanford -13 % bei 22- bis 25-Jaehrigen, junge Softwareentwickler -20 %, UK Tech-Absolventenstellen -46 %.",
      "global": "Nicht belegt. Yale Budget Lab nach 33 Monaten und in den Updates Jan und Mai 2026: keine erkennbare gesamtwirtschaftliche Stoerung. Arbeitslosenquote USA 4,3 % (Maerz 2026). Nur 4,7 % der US-Entlassungen 2025 wurden KI zugeschrieben.",
      "local_status": "belegt",
      "global_status": "nicht belegt"
    },
    {
      "id": "inequality",
      "claim": "Extreme Ungleichheit, Gewinne bei Tech-Eliten",
      "local": "Plausibel, durch Kapitalmarktdaten gestuetzt, im Ausgangsvideo nicht quantifiziert.",
      "global": "Prognose, keine Messung. Acemoglu erwartet steigende Ungleichheit zwischen Kapital- und Arbeitseinkommen - eine Modellaussage.",
      "local_status": "plausibel",
      "global_status": "prognose"
    },
    {
      "id": "trades",
      "claim": "Gen Z draengt ins Handwerk, Markt ueberlaufen",
      "local": "Nicht verifizierbar. Kein belastbarer Beleg gefunden. Auf dieser Seite nicht verwendet.",
      "global": "Nicht verifizierbar.",
      "local_status": "nicht verifizierbar",
      "global_status": "nicht verifizierbar"
    }
  ],
  "timeline_apple": [
    {
      "date": "2024-11-21",
      "event": "Apple Intelligence fasst drei NYT-Artikel zu einer Benachrichtigung zusammen, darin Netanyahu arrested - tatsaechlich ging es um einen Haftbefehl des Internationalen Strafgerichtshofs",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "BBC-APPLE"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-12-13",
      "event": "Push-Benachrichtigung mit BBC-Logo: Luigi Mangione shoots himself; Syrian mother hopes Assad pays the price; South Korea police raid Yoon Suk Yeol's office. Nur der erste Teil ist falsch",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "BBC-APPLE"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-12",
      "event": "BBC beschwert sich offiziell bei Apple, Apple lehnt eine Stellungnahme ab. Weitere belegte Fehlmeldungen zu Rafael Nadal und Luke Littler. Reporter ohne Grenzen fordert die Entfernung der Funktion",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "BBC-APPLE"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-16",
      "event": "Apple deaktiviert mit den Developer-Previews von iOS 18.3, iPadOS 18.3 und macOS Sequoia 15.3 die Benachrichtigungs-Zusammenfassungen fuer Nachrichten- und Entertainment-Apps vollstaendig und kuendigt Wiederaktivierung nach Verbesserung an",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "TC-APPLE"
    }
  ],
  "timeline_allbirds": [
    {
      "date": "2026-02",
      "event": "Allbirds schliesst seine US-Vollpreis-Filialen",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "TC-BIRD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03",
      "event": "Verkauf von Marke und Schuh-Assets an American Exchange Group fuer 39 Mio. USD",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "TC-BIRD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-15",
      "event": "Ankuendigung des Pivots zu KI-Compute-Infrastruktur, Umbenennung zu NewBird AI, Wandelfinanzierung ueber 50 Mio. USD. Aktie BIRD steigt von unter 3 USD auf 16,99 USD, +582 % an einem Tag",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "SEC-BIRD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "event": "Satzungsaenderung zur Abstimmung: Streichung der Bezeichnung als environmental conservation public benefit corporation. Allbirds war zertifizierte B Corp. Einen Tag spaeter pivotiert auch Myseum zu KI",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "SEC-BIRD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-18",
      "event": "Sonderversammlung der Aktionaere, Record Date 13.04.2026. Sonderdividende Q3 2026",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "SEC-BIRD"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "event": "Erneute Umbenennung zu Smartbird. Neue CEO Nadia Carlsten, vorher Leitung des AWS Quantum Computing Center, ersetzt Joe Vernachio",
      "marker": "IST",
      "src": "CNBC-BIRD"
    }
  ],
  "musk_matrix": [
    {
      "claim": "US-Zinslast groesser als Verteidigung plus Geheimdienste",
      "verdict": "bestaetigt, untertrieben",
      "strength": 5,
      "interest": "keine direkte Beteiligung; stuetzt seine These vom handlungsunfaehigen Staat"
    },
    {
      "claim": "China-Stromkapazitaet groesser als USA plus EU plus Indien",
      "verdict": "bestaetigt",
      "strength": 5,
      "interest": "stuetzt Orbital-These und Teslas Energiespeichergeschaeft"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Kimi K3 holt auf, Fable 5 derzeit fuehrend",
      "verdict": "bestaetigt",
      "strength": 5,
      "interest": "keine; Grok 4.5 liegt hinter dem als aufholend beschriebenen Modell"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Starlink-Whitelist gegen russische Nutzung",
      "verdict": "bestaetigt",
      "strength": 4,
      "interest": "Reputationsgewinn nach der Reuters-Berichterstattung vom Juli 2025"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fruehere Einschaetzung 10-20 % Vernichtungsrisiko durch KI",
      "verdict": "im Fachkorridor",
      "strength": 4,
      "interest": "keine"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Strom und Kuehlung sind der Engpass, nicht die Chips",
      "verdict": "halb richtig",
      "strength": 3,
      "interest": "beguenstigt die Orbital-These, entlastet von der Chip-Abhaengigkeit, in der xAI schwaecher positioniert ist"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Rivalisierende KI-Firmen sollen Frontier-Modelle vorab gegenseitig testen",
      "verdict": "existiert schon, nicht die beste Variante",
      "strength": 3,
      "interest": "direkt regulierungsvermeidend fuer xAI"
    },
    {
      "claim": "KI-Rechenzentren im Orbit loesen das Stromproblem",
      "verdict": "Projekt real, Zeitachse maximalistisch",
      "strength": 3,
      "interest": "SpaceX/xAI, FCC-Antrag ueber 1 Mio. Satelliten, IPO mit 1,5 Bio. USD Zielbewertung zur Finanzierung genau dieser Infrastruktur"
    },
    {
      "claim": "China steuert auf viermal so hohe Stromproduktion wie die USA zu",
      "verdict": "Richtung ja, Faktor nein",
      "strength": 2,
      "interest": "wie oben"
    },
    {
      "claim": "KI uebertrifft in rund fuenf Jahren die Summe menschlicher Intelligenz",
      "verdict": "im Konsenskorridor, Kriterium undefiniert",
      "strength": 2,
      "interest": "xAI-Bewertung, Kapitalbeschaffung"
    },
    {
      "claim": "KI ist beim Programmieren besser als 90 % der Profis",
      "verdict": "nicht messbar, ein RCT widerspricht",
      "strength": 2,
      "interest": "xAI-Bewertung"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Wohlfahrtsstaat als Migrationsmagnet",
      "verdict": "Forschungsstand gemischt",
      "strength": 2,
      "interest": "politische Position, keine Geschaeftsbeteiligung"
    },
    {
      "claim": "In zehn Jahren ist Geld irrelevant, Arbeit optional, Gueter quasi unbegrenzt",
      "verdict": "kein empirischer Anker",
      "strength": 1,
      "interest": "xAI- und Tesla-Bewertung"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Grundeinkommen fuehrt zu Deflation, nicht Inflation",
      "verdict": "haengt vollstaendig an der Ueberflussannahme",
      "strength": 1,
      "interest": "wie oben"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Steuerlast rund 45 % auf Aktienoptionen plus rund 45 % Erbschaftssteuer",
      "verdict": "ungepruefft, auf dieser Seite nicht verwendet",
      "strength": 0,
      "interest": "unmittelbar persoenlich"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Buergerkrieg in Grossbritannien in 20 Jahren",
      "verdict": "nicht bewertet - politische Prognose ohne pruefbaren Gehalt",
      "strength": null,
      "interest": "politische Position"
    }
  ],
  "china_vs_next_three_twh_2024": {
    "china": 10000,
    "usa": 4300,
    "eu27": 2700,
    "india": 2000,
    "sum_next_three": 9000,
    "ratio_now": 2.3,
    "ratio_2035_trend": 3.0,
    "claim_in_interview": 4.0,
    "marker": "IST / BERECHNET",
    "src": "EMBER-GER26 / VC-ELEC"
  },
  "china_2025": {
    "demand_growth_twh": 503,
    "demand_growth_pct": 5,
    "solar_growth_twh": 336,
    "solar_growth_pct": 40,
    "world_solar_share_pct": 58,
    "world_wind_share_pct": 72,
    "coal_power_change_twh": -71,
    "note": "erster Rueckgang des Kohlestroms seit 2015",
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "EMBER-GER26"
  },
  "us_net_interest_bn_usd": [
    {
      "fy": 2019,
      "v": 375,
      "marker": "IST"
    },
    {
      "fy": 2020,
      "v": 344.7,
      "marker": "IST"
    },
    {
      "fy": 2021,
      "v": 352.3,
      "marker": "IST"
    },
    {
      "fy": 2022,
      "v": 475.1,
      "marker": "IST"
    },
    {
      "fy": 2023,
      "v": 659.2,
      "marker": "IST"
    },
    {
      "fy": 2024,
      "v": 881.7,
      "marker": "IST"
    },
    {
      "fy": 2025,
      "v": 970.4,
      "marker": "IST"
    },
    {
      "fy": 2026,
      "v": 1000,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE"
    },
    {
      "fy": 2036,
      "v": 2100,
      "marker": "PROGNOSE"
    }
  ],
  "us_defense_fy2026_bn_usd": 947,
  "us_debt_tn_usd": 39.4,
  "us_interest_note": "Nach neun Monaten FY2026: 857 Mrd. USD Nettozinsen, 20 Mrd. mehr als die Ausgaben fuer Verteidigung, Handel, Homeland Security, Bildung, EPA, SBA und Corona-Steuergutschriften zusammen.",
  "intelligence_index_v41": [
    {
      "model": "Claude Fable 5",
      "score": 59.86,
      "origin": "US",
      "weights": "closed"
    },
    {
      "model": "GPT-5.6 Sol max",
      "score": 58.89,
      "origin": "US",
      "weights": "closed"
    },
    {
      "model": "GPT-5.6 Sol xhigh",
      "score": 57.65,
      "origin": "US",
      "weights": "closed"
    },
    {
      "model": "Kimi K3",
      "score": 57.11,
      "origin": "CN",
      "weights": "open"
    },
    {
      "model": "Claude Opus 4.8",
      "score": 55.69,
      "origin": "US",
      "weights": "closed"
    },
    {
      "model": "Grok 4.5",
      "score": 53.83,
      "origin": "US",
      "weights": "closed"
    },
    {
      "model": "GLM-5.2",
      "score": 51.09,
      "origin": "CN",
      "weights": "open"
    }
  ],
  "kimi_k3": {
    "parameters_tn": 2.8,
    "lmarena_frontend_code": 1679,
    "lmarena_fable5": 1631,
    "rank_jump_from": 18,
    "benchmarks_won_of_14": 6,
    "fable5_won_of_14": 8,
    "token_price_share": "rund ein Drittel",
    "hallucination_rate_pct": 51,
    "hallucination_rate_prev_pct": 39,
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "AA-INDEX / TH-K3"
  },
  "swebench": {
    "verified": [
      {
        "t": "2024, SWE-agent",
        "v": 12.5
      },
      {
        "t": "Ende 2024",
        "v": 50
      },
      {
        "t": "Jun 2025, Refact.ai",
        "v": 74.4
      },
      {
        "t": "Ende 2025",
        "v": 70
      },
      {
        "t": "Apr 2026, Claude Mythos Preview",
        "v": 93.9
      }
    ],
    "verified_avg_83_models": 63.4,
    "pro_leaders": [
      {
        "model": "Opus 4.8",
        "v": 69.2
      },
      {
        "model": "GLM-5.2",
        "v": 62.1
      }
    ],
    "pro_setup": "1.865 Aufgaben, 41 professionelle und private Repositories, kontaminationsresistent",
    "note": "OpenAIs interne Pruefung fand woertliche Reproduktion von Referenzpatches; OpenAI berichtet Verified seit Anfang 2026 nicht mehr.",
    "marker": "IST",
    "src": "SWE-LB"
  },
  "agi_forecasts": [
    {
      "source": "Dario Amodei",
      "year": 2026.5,
      "label": "2026-2027"
    },
    {
      "source": "Metaculus, weakly general AI",
      "year": 2027,
      "label": "2027"
    },
    {
      "source": "Shane Legg, 50 %",
      "year": 2028,
      "label": "2028"
    },
    {
      "source": "Metaculus, erstes allgemeines KI-System",
      "year": 2028.1,
      "label": "Median Feb 2028"
    },
    {
      "source": "Demis Hassabis, rund 50 %",
      "year": 2030,
      "label": "2030"
    },
    {
      "source": "Interviewaussage",
      "year": 2031,
      "label": "2031"
    },
    {
      "source": "Kombinierte Prognose, Stand 24.07.2026",
      "year": 2031,
      "ci80_low": 2027,
      "ci80_high": 2044,
      "label": "2031, 80-%-Intervall 2027-2044"
    },
    {
      "source": "Metaculus, alternative Lesart",
      "year": 2033,
      "label": "25 % bis 2029, 50 % bis 2033"
    },
    {
      "source": "Yann LeCun, Gary Marcus",
      "year": null,
      "label": "mit heutigen Architekturen nie"
    }
  ],
  "orbital_dc": {
    "filings": [
      {
        "entity": "SpaceX",
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "satellites": 1000000,
        "gw": 100,
        "orbit_km": [
          500,
          2000
        ]
      },
      {
        "entity": "Starcloud",
        "date": "2026-02-03",
        "satellites": 88000,
        "gw": 20
      },
      {
        "entity": "Orbital",
        "date": "2026-06",
        "satellites": 100000,
        "gw": 10
      }
    ],
    "timeline": [
      {
        "date": "2025-11-04",
        "event": "Google kuendigt Project Suncatcher an",
        "marker": "IST"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01",
        "event": "Axiom setzt erste freifliegende Orbital-Rechenzentrumsknoten ab, 2,5 Gbit/s optisch",
        "marker": "IST"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "event": "SpaceX FCC-Antrag: bis 1 Mio. Satelliten, 100 GW projizierte Rechenleistung",
        "marker": "IST"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-02",
        "event": "SpaceX/xAI-Fusion, 1,25 Bio. USD Bewertung",
        "marker": "IST"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03",
        "event": "Starcloud 170 Mio. USD Series A, 1,1 Mrd. USD Bewertung",
        "marker": "IST"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-10",
        "event": "Starcloud-2 geplant",
        "marker": "PROGNOSE"
      },
      {
        "date": "2027-01",
        "event": "Suncatcher: zwei Prototypen mit Planet Labs",
        "marker": "PROGNOSE"
      },
      {
        "date": "2027-Q1",
        "event": "Aetherflux erster kommerzieller Knoten",
        "marker": "PROGNOSE"
      },
      {
        "date": "2028",
        "event": "Starcloud S-1: fruehester plausibler kommerzieller Betrieb",
        "marker": "PROGNOSE"
      },
      {
        "date": "2029",
        "event": "Interviewaussage: guenstigster Ort fuer KI-Rechenleistung innerhalb von 2-3 Jahren",
        "marker": "PROGNOSE"
      },
      {
        "date": "2035",
        "event": "Googles eigenes Kostenmodell: Paritaet, bedingt auf Starship",
        "marker": "PROGNOSE"
      }
    ],
    "latency_ms_inter_node": 25,
    "viable_workloads": "Satellitenbild-Vorverarbeitung, Off-Planet-Speicher, latenztolerante Stapelverarbeitung. Nicht: Training.",
    "solar_advantage_factor": 8,
    "src": "INTROL-ORB / LUMINIX-ORB / TT-ORB"
  },
  "welfare_magnet": {
    "supporting": [
      "Borjas (1999)",
      "Agersnap, Jensen & Kleven (2020), Daenemark, kausal",
      "Kahanec & Guzi (2022), 38 OECD-Laender",
      "Bruecker et al. (2012)",
      "De Giorgi & Pellizzari (2009), moderat",
      "Verdugo (2016), Sozialwohnungen"
    ],
    "not_supporting": [
      "Giulietti et al. (2013), Effekt verschwindet nach Endogenitaetskorrektur",
      "Kaushal (2005)",
      "Pena (2014)",
      "Ferwerda et al. (2023)"
    ],
    "summary": "Als Haupttreiber gelten wirtschaftliche Gelegenheiten und Familiennetzwerke, nicht die Aussicht auf Sozialleistungen.",
    "src": "SF-WMH / IZA-WMH"
  },
  "shared_diagnosis": [
    {
      "id": "grid",
      "label": "Energie- und Netzengpass ist real",
      "evidence": "2.500 GW in Anschlusswarteschlangen; Netzinvestitionen muessen um 50 % steigen"
    },
    {
      "id": "entry",
      "label": "Kognitive Einstiegsarbeit wird zuerst automatisiert",
      "evidence": "Harvard -80 % Einstiegs-Einstellungen; Stanford -13 % bei 22- bis 25-Jaehrigen"
    },
    {
      "id": "capital",
      "label": "Kapitalfluesse enorm und teils von Ertraegen entkoppelt",
      "evidence": "ueber 400 Mrd. USD Capex 2025; rund 6 % der Unternehmen mit messbarem EBIT-Effekt"
    }
  ],
  "error_patterns": [
    {
      "id": "scaling",
      "label": "Skalierungs-Fehlschluss",
      "position": "KI-kritisches Video",
      "mechanism": "lokal richtiger Befund wird als globaler Zustand behauptet",
      "example": "Dublin 79 % Rechenzentrumsstrom, daraus massive globale Umweltschaeden",
      "break": "Schritt von lokal zu global",
      "interest": "VPN-Werbung, aufgebaut auf der erzeugten Angst"
    },
    {
      "id": "extrapolation",
      "label": "Extrapolations-Fehlschluss",
      "position": "Musk-Interview",
      "mechanism": "real gemessener Trend wird zur Diskontinuitaet verlaengert",
      "example": "SWE-bench 12,5 % auf 93,9 % in zwei Jahren, daraus Geld wird in zehn Jahren irrelevant",
      "break": "Schritt von Trend zu Sprung",
      "interest": "Boersengang mit 1,5 Bio. USD Zielbewertung, dessen Erloese die Orbital-Rechenzentren finanzieren"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "IEA-GER26",
      "title": "IEA, Global Energy Review 2026",
      "date": "2026-04",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026"
    },
    {
      "key": "IEA-EL26",
      "title": "IEA, Electricity 2026",
      "date": "2026-02",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026"
    },
    {
      "key": "IEA-MYU26",
      "title": "IEA, Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026",
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-2026"
    },
    {
      "key": "IEA-AI26",
      "title": "IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI",
      "date": "2026",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai"
    },
    {
      "key": "IEA-AI25",
      "title": "IEA, Energy and AI",
      "date": "2025-04",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai"
    },
    {
      "key": "IEA-COAL25",
      "title": "IEA, Coal 2025",
      "date": "2025-12",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025"
    },
    {
      "key": "IEA-BA25",
      "title": "IEA, Breakthrough Agenda Report 2025",
      "date": "2025",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/breakthrough-agenda-report-2025"
    },
    {
      "key": "GCB25",
      "title": "Global Carbon Budget 2025",
      "date": "2025-11-13",
      "url": "https://globalcarbonbudget.org"
    },
    {
      "key": "GCB25-ESSD",
      "title": "Global Carbon Budget 2025, ESSD 18, 3211",
      "date": "2026",
      "url": "https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/3211/2026/"
    },
    {
      "key": "EDGAR25",
      "title": "EDGAR/JRC, GHG emissions of all world countries 2025",
      "date": "2025-09",
      "url": "https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2025"
    },
    {
      "key": "FAO-GLEAM",
      "title": "FAO, Pathways towards lower livestock emissions",
      "date": "2023-12",
      "url": "https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/new-fao-report-maps-pathways-towards-lower-livestock-emissions/en"
    },
    {
      "key": "FAOSTAT25",
      "title": "FAO, GHG emissions from agrifood systems 2001-2023",
      "date": "2025-10",
      "url": "https://www.fao.org/statistics"
    },
    {
      "key": "EMBER26",
      "title": "Ember, Global Electricity Review 2026",
      "date": "2026-06",
      "url": "https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/"
    },
    {
      "key": "EMBER-GER26",
      "title": "Ember, Global Electricity Review 2026, Laenderkapitel China",
      "date": "2026-06",
      "url": "https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/major-countries-and-regions/#china"
    },
    {
      "key": "EI26",
      "title": "Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
      "date": "2026-07",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "UNEP25",
      "title": "UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2025",
      "date": "2025-11",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "DESTATIS",
      "title": "Destatis, G20 CO2 pro Kopf",
      "date": "2025-10",
      "url": "https://www.destatis.de"
    },
    {
      "key": "OWID-DC26",
      "title": "Hannah Ritchie, How much energy do data centers and artificial intelligence use?, Our World in Data",
      "date": "2026-07-20",
      "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/how-much-energy-do-data-centers-and-artificial-intelligence-use"
    },
    {
      "key": "GOOGLE-GEM",
      "title": "Google Cloud, Measuring the environmental impact of AI inference",
      "date": "2025-08-21",
      "url": "https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/infrastructure/measuring-the-environmental-impact-of-ai-inference"
    },
    {
      "key": "GOOGLE-PAPER",
      "title": "Measuring the environmental impact of delivering AI at Google Scale, arXiv 2508.15734",
      "date": "2025",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.15734"
    },
    {
      "key": "IEA-STREAM",
      "title": "IEA/Carbon Brief, Factcheck: What is the carbon footprint of streaming video on Netflix?",
      "date": "2021",
      "url": "https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-what-is-the-carbon-footprint-of-streaming-video-on-netflix/"
    },
    {
      "key": "ITU-DIGITAL",
      "title": "ITU (UN), Greenhouse-Gas-Tracking von 200 Digitalkonzernen",
      "date": "2025-06",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "TRELLIS26",
      "title": "Trellis, Amazon, Google and Microsoft: 2025 environmental recap",
      "date": "2026-07",
      "url": "https://trellis.net/article/ai-threatens-big-tech-clean-energy-agenda/"
    },
    {
      "key": "WEF-FOJ25",
      "title": "WEF, Future of Jobs Report 2025",
      "date": "2025-01",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "ILO-WP140",
      "title": "Gmyrek, Berg, Troszynski, Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure, ILO Working Paper 140",
      "date": "2025-05-20",
      "url": "https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2025-05/WP140_web.pdf"
    },
    {
      "key": "YALE-BL",
      "title": "The Budget Lab at Yale, Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market",
      "date": "2025-10, Updates 2026-01 und 2026-05",
      "url": "https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/evaluating-impact-ai-labor-market-current-state-affairs"
    },
    {
      "key": "CANARIES",
      "title": "Brynjolfsson, Chandar & Chen, Canaries in the Coal Mine?",
      "date": "2025-08, Update 2026-02",
      "url": "https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/"
    },
    {
      "key": "ACEMOGLU",
      "title": "Acemoglu, The Simple Macroeconomics of AI",
      "date": "2024-05",
      "url": "https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/The%20Simple%20Macroeconomics%20of%20AI.pdf"
    },
    {
      "key": "ECB-AI26",
      "title": "EZB, AI and the euro area economy",
      "date": "2026-03-23",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260323_1~1e06784a89.en.html"
    },
    {
      "key": "ICLE-REV",
      "title": "ICLE, AI, Productivity, and Labor Markets: A Review of the Empirical Evidence",
      "date": "2026-02-05",
      "url": "https://laweconcenter.org/resources/ai-productivity-and-labor-markets-a-review-of-the-empirical-evidence/"
    },
    {
      "key": "AEI-INDEX",
      "title": "Anthropic Economic Index Reports",
      "date": "2025-2026",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-index-june-2026-report"
    },
    {
      "key": "PWBM-AI",
      "title": "Penn Wharton Budget Model, The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth",
      "date": "2025-09-08",
      "url": "https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2025-09-08-the-projected-impact-of-generative-ai-on-future-productivity-growth/"
    },
    {
      "key": "SEC-BIRD",
      "title": "Allbirds, Inc., Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1",
      "date": "2026-04-15",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001653909/000119312526164338/d34261dex991.htm"
    },
    {
      "key": "TC-BIRD",
      "title": "TechCrunch, After sale of its shoe business, Allbirds pivots to AI",
      "date": "2026-04-15",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/15/after-sale-of-its-shoe-business-allbirds-pivots-to-ai/"
    },
    {
      "key": "CBS-BIRD",
      "title": "CBS News, Allbirds says it's ditching footwear and pivoting to become an AI company",
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allbirds-ai-pivot-sells-footwear-brand-stock-soars/"
    },
    {
      "key": "CNBC-BIRD",
      "title": "CNBC, Allbirds continues AI pivot with name change and CEO hire",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/allbirds-bird-ai-smartbird-ceo.html"
    },
    {
      "key": "BBC-APPLE",
      "title": "BBC News, BBC complains to Apple over misleading shooting headline",
      "date": "2024-12",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0elzk24dno"
    },
    {
      "key": "TC-APPLE",
      "title": "TechCrunch, Apple pauses AI notification summaries for news after generating false alerts",
      "date": "2025-01-16",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/16/apple-pauses-ai-notification-summaries-for-news-after-generating-false-alerts"
    },
    {
      "key": "HARVARD-EL",
      "title": "Hosseini & Lichtinger (Harvard), Arbeitspapier zu Einstiegs-Einstellungen und genAI-Adoption",
      "date": "2026",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "REVELIO",
      "title": "Revelio Labs, Einstiegs-Stellenausschreibungen USA",
      "date": "2025",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "SIGNALFIRE",
      "title": "SignalFire, State of Talent Report",
      "date": "2025-05",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "ZIPREC-26",
      "title": "ZipRecruiter, Annual Grad Report 2026",
      "date": "2026",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "INDEED-EXP",
      "title": "Indeed Hiring Lab, Erfahrungsanforderungen in Tech-Ausschreibungen",
      "date": "2025",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "VC-ELEC",
      "title": "Visual Capitalist / Our World in Data, Stromerzeugung nach Laendern 1985-2024",
      "date": "2025-06",
      "url": "https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-top-countries-by-annual-electricity-production-1985-2024/"
    },
    {
      "key": "PGPF-INT",
      "title": "Peter G. Peterson Foundation, Monthly Interest Tracker",
      "date": "2026-07",
      "url": "https://www.pgpf.org/programs-and-projects/fiscal-policy/monthly-interest-tracker-national-debt/"
    },
    {
      "key": "AAF-INT",
      "title": "American Action Forum, Interest Payments on the National Debt",
      "date": "2026-04-21",
      "url": "https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/interest-payments-on-the-national-debt-the-near-and-long-term-outlook/"
    },
    {
      "key": "EPIC-Q1",
      "title": "EPIC for America, Interest Spending Tracker Q1 FY2026",
      "date": "2026-01-21",
      "url": "https://epicforamerica.org/federal-budget/interest-spending-tracker-q1-of-fy-2026/"
    },
    {
      "key": "AA-INDEX",
      "title": "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.1",
      "date": "2026-07",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "TH-K3",
      "title": "Tom's Hardware, Moonshot releases 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3",
      "date": "2026-07",
      "url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/moonshot-releases-2-8-trillion-parameter-kimi-k3"
    },
    {
      "key": "SWE-LB",
      "title": "SWE-bench Leaderboard 2026, Modell-Scores und Kontaminationshinweis",
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "url": "https://codeant.ai/blogs/swe-bench-scores"
    },
    {
      "key": "AGI-DASH",
      "title": "AGI Timelines Dashboard, kombinierte Prognose",
      "date": "2026-07-24",
      "url": "https://agi.goodheartlabs.com/"
    },
    {
      "key": "NEVO-AGI",
      "title": "Nevo, AGI Timeline: Expert Predictions 2026-2030",
      "date": "2026-03-02",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "OAI-ANT",
      "title": "OpenAI, Findings from a pilot Anthropic-OpenAI alignment evaluation exercise",
      "date": "2025-08-27",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/openai-anthropic-safety-evaluation/"
    },
    {
      "key": "METR-FRR",
      "title": "METR, Frontier Risk Report",
      "date": "2026-05-19",
      "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-05-19-frontier-risk-report/"
    },
    {
      "key": "INTROL-ORB",
      "title": "Introl, Orbital Data Center Race 2026",
      "date": "2026-02-21",
      "url": "https://introl.com/blog/orbital-data-centers-space-computing-race-2026"
    },
    {
      "key": "LUMINIX-ORB",
      "title": "Luminix, Data Centers in Space: Feasibility & Economics",
      "date": "2026-07",
      "url": "https://www.useluminix.com/reports/industry-analysis/data-centers-in-space"
    },
    {
      "key": "TT-ORB",
      "title": "TechTimes, Orbital AI Data Centers: Son cites latency and launch cost",
      "date": "2026-06-28",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/319218/20260628/orbital-ai-data-centers-son-cites-latency-launch-cost-spacex-race-heats.htm"
    },
    {
      "key": "REU-STAR",
      "title": "Reuters, Ukraine says Starlink terminals used by Russia deactivated",
      "date": "2026-02-05",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "FDD-STAR",
      "title": "FDD, SpaceX Blocks Russia's Starlink Access",
      "date": "2026-02-06",
      "url": "https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/02/06/spacex-blocks-russias-starlink-access-but-ubiquitis-tech-remains-ubiquitous/"
    },
    {
      "key": "REU-KHER",
      "title": "Reuters, Musk ordered Starlink shutdown during Ukraine's 2022 Kherson counteroffensive",
      "date": "2025-07-25",
      "url": null
    },
    {
      "key": "SF-WMH",
      "title": "Social Forces, Evidence for the welfare magnet hypothesis? A global examination",
      "date": "2025-04-08",
      "url": "https://academic.oup.com/sf/article/104/3/850/8108064"
    },
    {
      "key": "IZA-WMH",
      "title": "IZA World of Labor, The welfare magnet hypothesis and the welfare take-up of migrants",
      "date": "2014",
      "url": "https://wol.iza.org/articles/welfare-magnet-hypothesis-and-welfare-take-up-of-migrants/long"
    }
  ]
}